What should my fantasy draft order be

Among the first six RB drafted each season, only three out of 30 failed to score plus points while staying mostly healthy. That crop of RBs tend to be very, very good investments -- they combine that point upside with the must-start floor. That's what you want from your first-round pick. After that? It's a pretty mixed bag. Taking one of the second tier running backs dropped your chances of getting a must-start player by about half.

And for the rest of the position, you're looking at even worse odds. You weren't even getting coin-flip odds when drafting from the RB2 range; it was more like trying to flip heads twice in a row. Okay, but not all draft classes are made equal, right? This RB class is strong! The No. Where a player is drafted among his positional peers only tells you so much about how good he is. What about where they are drafted among the player pool?

Let's look at some round-by-round results:. Well, that pretty much goes the way you would expect it to, but … it's not very promising, is it?

You've got a coin flip's chance at hitting on a point scorer in the second round, and pretty close to the same in the third round. After that … gross. If you've heard of the term "RB Dead Zone," that's what it's talking about -- after the third round, your chances of hitting on a running back diminish dramatically.

However, that was a season when just 17 RB were taken in the first three rounds on average; right now in , there are 20 RB being taken in the first three rounds. So which sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen's huge season , and find out.

The early-round WR don't have quite as much upside as their RB counterparts -- none of them are going to score points, and in the first two rounds, one-quarter of RB reach points, while That's not a big gap, but it fits with the idea that the early-round RB are more likely to give you a really, really big return on your investment.

What's interesting is that, through the first three rounds, at least, RB and WR hit that point mark about as often, with possibly a slight edge to RB:. We're dealing with small enough sample sizes that the gaps in percentages aren't as big as they might appear, but I think you can generally say that the early-round RB -- at least the first two rounds -- provide more reasonable upside without a significant increase in risk, in recent history.

Once you get past those first two rounds? Well, it ain't a WR Dead Zone , that's for sure. So: Early on, RB have the edge.

After the first few rounds? WR are the better bet? If Graham is off the board, then you should continue to build on your running back and wide receiver depth. I just don't see Greg Olsen or Travis Kelce being worth a top pick. Deciding on whether to draft a runner or wideout will be based on the best player available between the two. In the mock, I took Keenan Allen. Olsen or Kelce are options at tight end, but you have to determine if their value is greater than that of the available runners and receivers.

I passed on both of them in the mock in favor of rookie T. Yeldon , who figures to be a three-down back in his first season in Jacksonville. The Alabama product has the upside to emerge into a No. The same goes for wideouts. If either Kelce or Olsen is still on the board, I would jump on the best available option. Otherwise, I'm likely to wait a bit longer on a tight end. You should also be looking at how many quarterbacks have been drafted at this time. There shouldn't be more than five or six picked, so you can still wait if you haven't landed Brees or Manning in a recent round.

If you're still in need at quarterback, I'd consider taking Cam Newton in this round. Otherwise, continue to build depth at runner and wideout. That's nice depth. You'll be amazed at the number of good signal-callers that are still on the board at this point, including the likes of Ben Roethlisberger , Tony Romo and Tom Brady although his stock is on the rise.

If you feel like you can wait another round or two on that position, Bennett is a good choice at tight end. In fact, he was the player I landed in this round during our mock. In the expert's league, I waited to draft a quarterback until this point and was still able to land Newton. If you already took a quarterback and still lack a tight end, then that's the position you should target.

If you have already grabbed a signal-caller and a tight end in one of the first nine rounds, then you can also continue to build on runners maybe a top handcuff and wide receivers with this pick. That gives you some options to choose from in terms of your next selection s. If you don't love your No. I tend not to draft a backup tight end, though, and would rather go after a No. In all, continue to use common sense.

You don't need to draft a sixth runner or wideout You shouldn't have drafted a defense or kicker yet based on this draft strategy, but if you did shame on you! You can even consider one of the elite tight ends not named Kelce in the second or third rounds— Darren Waller or George Kittle.

It's better to lock up the best players available in this scenario than reach too far for guys like Darrell Henderson, Josh Jacobs or Myles Gaskin. In rounds 4 and 5, you can go a couple of different ways. You'll most likely want to round out your WR2, WR3 and flex spots. There are still very good receivers to be had at this point. Julio Jones , Chris Godwin , D. There's likely going to be at least a full-round wait for this group after Kittle or Waller are selected. If you don't want one of these top six guys, you should feel comfortable waiting a few more rounds or more to take a tight end.

If you're still without an RB2 in round 5, these might not be the rounds to figure out that position. You can consider a running back with pass-catching upside like Chase Edmonds , Travis Etienne or Kareem Hunt , but there are not many backs in this range you'd want to rely on weekly.

Consider waiting another round for a Javonte Williams or Damien Harris. You're looking to strike on an upside play in this range.

If you have your RB2, the pass catchers in this range are still superior to the running backs. Due to the wide gap between rounds 4—5 and rounds 5—6, if you want an elite quarterback, pay up now.

My general philosophy is to wait on quarterbacks, but if you want a top-tier passer like Josh Allen , Kyler Murray or Dak Prescott Patrick Mahomes may already be gone by this point , then you can't wait for a value that feels right. Through your first five rounds of drafting, you should hope to have your running back slots filled.

Running backs are going earlier and more often in the opening rounds than in recent years. Consider yourself lucky to have the position at least halfway figured out with a top-four pick. A strong team, even just on paper, is balanced and mitigates risk.

A bad season for Texas reached a new low with a 57—56 overtime loss to Kansas, marking the first time the Jayhawks have ever won in Austin. The wide receiver was in his third season with Cleveland before being released last week and signing with the Rams. D'Ernest Johnson has a great opportunity to flex his skills with the Browns' depleted at running back.